A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
