It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
